First Jazz, Then Rock, Now Hip Hop: The Rise And Fall Of Zeitgeist Music Genres

Hip hop is following the same trajectory as rock and jazz – which means it could be about to lose mainstream appeal in as little as 5 years.

HIP HOP IS DYING. I could have gone with that title. Online articles and YouTube videos were proclaiming this back in 2023. Nas was even announcing 'Hip Hop Is Dead' as early as 2006.

But I didn’t go with this title, because that would be a clickbaity lie. Hip hop isn’t dying. No music genre ever dies. Especially a zeitgeist genre like hip hop.

In fact, hip hop is currently the most streamed music genre globally on Spotify. Hip hop is also the most listened to genre among Gen Z. On top of this, three Billboard Hot 100 number ones this year have also been hip hop singles. Not really what I would describe as a genre on its deathbed.

However, I do believe that hip hop’s days are numbered as a mainstream chart-topping genre. Research by Luminate shows that hip hop is slowly but surely declining in popularity. And while the likes of Kendrick and Travis Scott continue to score chart-toppers, the number of rap songs in the charts is dwindling (there are currently none in the Billboard top 40 for the first time since 1990). There is also an undeniable shortage of new rap superstars.

Why is this happening? Because it's the natural end phase of a zeitgeist music genre. We've seen it happen to jazz. We've seen it happen to rock. And now it's hip hop's turn to fade from the limelight.

It's part of a theory that I'm calling the 'The 6 Phase Theory'. It's the theory that jazz, rock and hip hop have all followed the exact same 6 phases. I've given these phases the following names: The Roots Phase, The Breakout Phase, The Classics Phase, The Saturation Phase, The Reinvention Phase and The Fragmentation Phase. 

Each of these phases has lasted roughly a decade. And the entire 6 phases span about 60 years. 

Here is a little table that showcases these 6 phases:

	Jazz	Rock	Hip Hop
Roots phase	1900s	1950s	1970s
Breakout phase	1910s	1960s	1980s
Classics phase	1920s	1970s	1990s
Saturation phase	1930s	1980s	2000s
Reinvention phase	1940s	1990s	2010s
Fragmentation phase	1950s	2000s	2020s

Like jazz in the 50s and rock in the 00s, hip hop is currently in its final phase of evolution as a zeitgeist genre. What we're seeing now is the last hurrah before the inevitable takeover of another music genre (my money in on K-pop - but more about that later). Hip hop will continue to thrive after, but it will lose its grip on the mainstream.

How can I be sure of this? I can't be sure of it. However, given that both jazz and rock have both largely dropped off the charts, and hip hop has followed the exact same phases as both genres, it seems like there is a strong pattern in place. To better understand this pattern, let’s take a deeper look into each of the 6 phases...

The 6 Phases of a Zeitgeist Music Genre

The Roots Phase

This is when a music genre is born. Our baby music genre spends this first phase in development – at this stage, it is still trying to find its feet, and cannot be easily separated from its parent genres. Any fanbase is likely to be very small and local.

It’s worth noting that jazz, rock and hip hop all have Black American roots. They are also all hybrid genres, created from mixing a variety of genres and musical techniques. This might explain why each genre has grown up the same way.

Jazz (1900s): Jazz is the child of blues and ragtime. Its grandparents are folk, spirituals, march music and classical. While some argue that the genre can be traced back as far as 1819 to Congo Square in New Orleans, many jazz-storians agree that it was the melodies of blues and the rhythms of ragtime that helped shape jazz – and both blues and ragtime didn’t become popular until the 1890s. Ragtime competitions called ‘cutting contests’ in the 1900s ultimately helped give birth to the genre by pushing forward the complexity of ragtime to create something new.   

Rock (1950s): Rock was born out of rock ‘n’ roll – which itself is the child of rhythm & blues, boogie-woogie and country music. The first ever rock ‘n’ roll song, ‘Rocket 88’, was recorded at Sun Studio in Memphis in 1951 (although it’s hotly debated as to whether this truly was the first song). Rock ‘n’ roll was HUGELY popular during this era. However, if we separate pure ‘rock’ from ‘rock ‘n’ roll’, there are only traces of the former in the 50s (if you want to hear a rock song that was WAY ahead of its time, check out Johnny Watson’s ‘Space Guitar’ from 1954!).

Hip hop (1970s): Hip hop was born out of funk and disco. The birth of hip hop is often said to have occurred in 1973 at a block party in the Bronx. DJ Kool Herc, a Jamaican-American DJ, used two turntables to create loops of instrumental breaks from funk and disco tracks, while his friend Coke La Rock began rhyming over the top. These unique DJ performances caught the attention of club-goers across New York and other DJs began emulating this style.  

The Breakout Phase

Let’s move onto the second phase – the ‘Breakout Phase’. This is when a zeitgeist music genre breaks the mainstream and becomes fully independent from its parent genres. It could potentially be seen as the genre’s ‘teenage’ years. Other genres go through this phase, but typically remain underground. The zeitgeist genre on the other hand becomes the coolest and most popular kid in school.

During this stage, we see increased participation from white listeners and white musicians. This is particularly the case with rock and jazz. If you wanted to be spicy, you could call this the ‘colonization phase’.

Jazz (1910s): Jazz officially breaks the mainstream in 1917. In the early 1910s, we start to see the first printed uses of the words ‘jass’ and ‘jazz’ referring to a new style of music spreading across the US. In 1914, The Creole Band plays the first international jazz concert. However, it’s the first jazz recording in 1917, ‘Livery Stable Blues’, which exposes jazz to millions around the world – recorded by an all-white band named The Original Dixieland Jazz Band (who outrageously claim to have invented jazz!).

Rock (1960s): Rock officially breaks the mainstream in 1964. Rock ‘n’ roll starts to wind down in the early 1960s, but a new ‘rock’ sound hits the US in 1964 via the ‘British Invasion’ and quickly spreads across the world. This sound doesn’t have the ‘rolling’ boogie-woogie rhythms of rock ‘n’ roll, instead consisting of more unique chord progressions popularised by beat bands like The Beatles. A particularly influential song is ‘You Really Got Me’ by The Kinks, which popularises the power chord. Daring new lyrical topics like politics and drugs further differentiate the genre from rock ‘n’ roll.

Hip hop (1980s): Hip hop officially breaks the mainstream in September 1979 (so technically in the 70s, but given that it’s the very end of the decade, it’s basically the 80s). ‘Rapper’s Delight’ by The Sugarhill Gang becomes the first hip hop hit, which consists of rapped verses over the sampled instrumental from Chic’s ‘Good Times’. Later acts like Run DMC are particularly influential in helping to popularise and evolve hip hop, moving the genre away from its disco and funk roots towards a grittier beat-driven sound in 1983.

The Classics Phase

The third phase is the ‘Classics Phase’. This is when a zeitgeist genre starts to mature and further develop its defining characteristics. Some of the genre’s biggest icons rise to fame during this period, and this is when many of the ‘classic’ hits are released.

This phase is often viewed as a golden age for the genre. It is also typically the phase that future purists refer to when they use terms like ‘real jazz’, ‘real rock’ or ‘real hip hop’.

Jazz (1920s): The 1920s is often referred to as the ‘Jazz Age’, and music from this phase is dubbed ‘traditional jazz’. Defining elements like solos, scat singing and bandleaders are developed during this decade. Some of the first jazz superstars like Louis Armstrong, Duke Ellington, Jelly Roll Morton and King Oliver launched their careers during this decade.

Rock (1970s): Many of the bands and hits referred to as ‘classic rock’ come from this period.  Defining elements like headbanging, guitar shredding and ‘glam’ outfits/make-up are developed during this decade. This is also when iconic rock bands like Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, AC/DC, Eagles, Queen and Fleetwood Mac rise to popularity.

Hip Hop (1990s): This decade is often referred to as the ‘Golden Age of Hip Hop’. Gangsta rap, the ‘G-funk’ sound and the bling aesthetic are all developed during this era. Iconic artists like Snoop Dogg, Tupac Shakur, The Notorious B.I.G, Dr Dre, Eminem and Missy Elliot rise to fame during this decade.

The Saturation Phase

The fourth phase, the ‘Saturation Phase’, is the commercial peak of a zeitgeist genre. It is also when we start to see a specific style of this genre saturating the airwaves. This style has a much grander and flamboyant sound and visuals, and it is largely geared towards dancefloors or parties.

Some fans find this style overly commercialized and cliché-heavy, and we start to see more artists rebelling against this style, but this remains largely an underground movement until the next phase.

Jazz (1930s): Jazz becomes saturated with the ‘swing’ sound - which consists of ‘big band’ ensembles, danceable ‘swinging’ rhythms, prominent melodic riffs and ‘shout choruses’. Artists like Benny Goodman, Count Basie, Artie Shaw, Ella Fitzgerald and Glenn Miller rise to fame during this period.

Rock (1980s): Rock becomes saturated with the ‘glam metal’ sound (also known as ‘hair metal’) – defined by catchy choruses, flashy guitar solos, spandex outfits, arena-style production, over-the-top MTV videos and hedonistic lyrics. Hugely successful glam metal acts of this era include Bon Jovi, Motley Crue, Def Leppard, Twisted Sister and Poison.

Hip Hop (2000s): Hip hop becomes saturated with a ‘club rap’ sound during what is commonly know as the ‘bling era’ – it is defined by hedonistic lyrics, R&B vocal features, EDM-infused beats, glamorous music videos and lots of bling. Artists like Jay-Z, 50 Cent, DMX, and early Kanye West help shape this sound.

The Reinvention Phase

The fifth phase is the ‘Reinvention Phase’. Our zeitgeist genre has started to get set in its ways and needs a new direction. Younger fans see the current saturated sound as ‘uncool’. This leads to the genre going through a massive reinvention in order to stay relevant. New artists begin to break away from the cliches of the ‘saturation’ phase, stripping elements of the genre back to its roots.  

Other artists go in the opposite direction, pushing certain cliches further to extremes, while rejecting others. As a result, the genre starts to split into multiple different movements.

Jazz (1940s): During this decade, ‘bebop’ is founded – a style of jazz that is a direct rebellion against swing. This new style of jazz replaces big bands with small ensembles and trades dance-ability for technical proficiency. Charlie Parker, Dizzy Gillespie and Bud Powell are some of the most famous artists that pioneer this movement. Other jazz acts double-down on the danceability, but with a reduced band size and greater focus on the singer, merging boogie-woogie influences to help form ‘rhythm and blues’. Other artists like Frank Sinatra meanwhile take swing in a poppier direction, singing over big band arrangements, but in a traditional pop style similar to Bing Crosby.

Rock (1990s): The 1990s see the rise of various ‘alternative rock’ styles such as grunge, Britpop, indie and punk pop. Each one rejects the flashiness and hypermasculinity of 80s glam metal. Key artists include Nirvana, Green Day, Radiohead and Oasis. On the opposite end of the spectrum, we see the rise of nu metal acts like Limp Bizkit that amplify the metal elements, while still simplifying the music and getting rid of the glitzy outfits (hip hop influences also start creeping in).

Hip Hop: 2010s: The 2010s sees the rise of ‘trap rap’. We see a rejection of the flashy rapping popularised by Eminem in the 2000s in exchange for vibe-focused autotune-heavy inflection-experimenting rapping. We also see the lush EDM-flavoured production being replaced by more skeletal trap beats made of 808s. A lot of popular rap artists from this era like Drake, Kanye West and Kendrick Lamar reject the lyrics about drugs and guns. Other movements do the opposite – SoundCloud Rap takes the gaudiness and lyrical themes of ‘bling era’ rap (including guns and drugs) and revs it all up to dizzying levels, but the production still retains a DIY rawness that is different from the 00s.

The Fragmentation Phase

This is the sixth and final phase. Our zeitgeist genre is getting older and falling apart. There is no longer a unifying mainstream sound. Instead, our zeitgeist genre has become fragmented into many different styles each with their own fanbases. There is not much crossover appeal between these different styles.

This makes it harder for new superstars to be born – not every fan of the genre wants to rally behind the same artists. Without new superstars, the genre starts to lose its grip on the charts. And young fans start to look towards new rising genres for their idols.

Jazz (1950s): By the 1950s, jazz has a very fragmented fanbase. The cool jazz of Miles Davis and the swing revival popularised by the ‘rat pack’ are each hugely popular, but there is not much crossover appeal. It is rock n roll and soul that begin to win over young audiences instead, as both feel new and fresh. By the 60s, many jazz clubs have closed and jazz record sales are in fast decline.

Rock (2000s): The 00s gives birth to the last new arena bands within rock including the Arctic Monkeys, The Killers and My Chemical Romance. By this point, the fanbase is very fragmented, with little crossover between emos and metalheads and indie kids. By the end of the decade, many young music listeners are gravitating towards hip hop and EDM instead of rock. The last chart-topping rock acts like Coldplay and Maroon 5 meanwhile evolve into pop acts in order to stay relevant. In 2015, hip hop/r&b is getting more Spotify streams than rock. 

Hip Hop (2020s): Is hip hop in its fragmentation phase? It would certainly seem that way – there are now many styles of hip hop and very little crossover appeal between them (your average Playboi Carti fan isn’t listening to Clipse or Earl Sweatshirt). And there haven’t been many new emerging superstars this decade except for Ice Spice and Yeat. The likes of Kendrick Lamar and Travis Scott may still be scoring number ones. But how long will they continue to score hits?

Does the 6 phase theory truly hold up?

There are many counterarguments you can make to this theory and its 6 phases. For example:

• Did rock really break out in the 60s? Or is rock simply an evolution of rock ‘n’ roll (which had its mainstream breakout in the 50s)? This would put the Breakout Phase 10 years earlier, which would put the whole 50 year theory out of sync.
• And what about the punk movement of the 70s? Shouldn’t this be the reinvention phase? If we’re talking about mainstream rock, you could argue that punk’s influences remained largely underground until the birth of alt rock in the 90s, but you could also argue that punk triggered New Wave – which was very much a mainstream movement.
• During the ‘Reinvention Phase’, each genre reinvented itself in a different way. Jazz became more musically complex, whereas rock and hip hop arguably become more simplified. Is it fair to therefore say that they follow the same pattern?
• Was the 00s really the commercial peak of hip hop? Some would argue that hip hop continued to grow in popularity after and that the recent trap rap phenomenon is the true ‘Saturation Phase’.
• Did rock really lose mainstream appeal after the 00s? What about hugely popular artists like Olivia Rodrigo? Couldn’t some of her hits be classed as rock? Even The Beatles came back and scored a worldwide hit this decade.

These suggest that perhaps it’s all too easy to see patterns where there may not actually be patterns (in which case, there’s no reason why hip hop may not continue to thrive for a few more decades). But then again you can make arguments against these counterarguments…

• I would argue that rock was a distinct movement compared to rock ‘n’ roll. Rock ‘n’ roll was still very piano-heavy and has a heavy boogie-woogie influence in its rhythm. Rock is based more around guitar power chords and introduced political and psychedelic influences.
• Punk was a reinvention of the rock sound, but it didn’t entirely change rock until the 90s. The mainstream impact of New Wave was mostly felt through the pop landscape via movements like synthpop. Mainstream rock continued to be an extension of the sounds of the 70s until grunge and Britpop came along.
• Jazz, rock and hip hop may have each reinvented themselves differently but regardless they still went through a reinvention phase with a focus on stripping things back. Bebop saw jazz ensembles scaling back. Alternative rock stripped away the guitar solos and hedonism. Trap rap stripped away the poppy/EDM elements and the glamorous imagery for a grittier street sound.
• Hip hop may have grown an audience since the 00s, but it was the 90s and 00s that produced hip hop’s biggest and most famous superstars. No rapper since 2010 has ever reached the same level of superstardom as Eminem, Kanye West or Jay-Z in the 00s. Okay, maybe Drake and Nicki Minaj have, but their careers started in the 00s too.
• Any rock hits we see right now are still outliers in the commercial landscape. And what they’re doing isn’t groundbreaking enough to truly revive rock – if anything it’s just diluting what has come before to achieve greater accessibility. Olivia Rodrigo is to rock what Kenny G is to jazz.

What does this 6 phases theory mean for the future of hip hop?

The mainstream death of rock and jazz has not been a bad thing. In fact, it has taken away the focus on trying to engineer music for the masses, instead putting the focus on making music that is authentic and innovative. In the same way that rock has been producing exciting acts like BCNR, Black midi, Turnstile and Geese in recent years, hip hop will have its own renaissance of exciting rappers who aren’t just trying to make quick hits.

The biggest question is that if hip hop is no longer the zeitgeist, what will take its place? A few years ago, I might have put bets on hyperpop or reggaeton, but K-pop now seems like the most likely contender. BTS, Blackpink and K-Pop Demon Hunters have been taking over the charts this decade. Of course, the internet has changed the way music spreads and K-pop is not of black American origins, so this new zeitgeist genre might not follow the same six phases. We will see in the next few years!